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Pakistan Growth Story in Tables

Editor Isb by Editor Isb
May 14, 2025
in National, Latest
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Pakistan Growth Story in Tables
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By Shahzada Ahsan Ashraf

The economic watch is highly anticipated next week as all interest is on how the elections will unfold. We will take the opportunity to discuss Pakistan’s weak growth as one of the challenges affecting the economy after inflation.

We will also explore why reforms are required and identify global factors that could potentially harm Pakistan the most.

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Table 1: GDP Growth Rate (World Bank)

Fiscal Year (FY) GDP Growth (%)
FY23 (Estimated) -0.6
FY24 (Projected) 1.7
FY25 (Projected) 2.3
shahzada-ahsan-ashraf
Writer

Table 2: Economic Outlook and Challenges Report

Outlook and Risks Sectoral Recovery Expectations
Sluggish economic growth expected Expected recovery in the agriculture sector
High downside risks Marginal easing of import restrictions
IMF Stand-By Arrangement approval Some recovery in the industrial sector
Reserves expected to remain low Strengthening agriculture and industry supports services

Table 3: Export Projections (IMF)

Fiscal Year (FY) Export Proceeds (in billion USD)
FY24 $30.84
FY25 $32.35
FY26 $34.68
FY27 $37.25
FY28 $39.46

Table 4: Remittances, World Bank Forecast for 2024

Year Forecasted Growth (%) Estimated Remittance Amount (in billion USD)
2024 -10 Below $22 billion

Table 5: Global Factors Impacting Remittances in 2023

Factor Impact on Growth
Shift in trend: Families moving out of PK Decline
Weak growth in other GCC & EU countries Decline
Oil prices and production drop Decline

Summary Table: Risks Without Reforms

Risks Without Reforms
– Exceptionally high risks
– Economic activity constrained. Anaemic GDP Growth
– Low investment & weak exports undermine growth potential
– Over 10 million people at risk of falling into poverty without reforms

Global Factors Table

Factor/Event Impact/Concern
Federal Reserve Action Fed crushes March rate-cut hopes. Will freeze liquidity. Stock markets remain south bound
China’s Property Meltdown Reinforces belief in a global deflation shockwave stemming from China’s property market meltdown
Brent Forecast Forecast range: $70 to $80; Breach above may not be good for the global economy & especially Pakistan
Geopolitical Uncertainty More aggressive posture by warring countries may escalate uncertainty and commodity prices

(The writer is a Former Chairman and Managing Director PIA, Former Federal Minister of industries and production)

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